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Tropical Systems

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Active Tropical Systems Tropical Season Archive Monthly Summary
Basin Outlooks Basin Discussions Sea Surface Temps Satellite
Eastern Pacific Tropical Outlook
ABPZ20 KNHC 232327

500 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Satellite data and surface observations indicate that the
circulation of the low pressure system located about 1600 miles
southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii is currently not well
defined.  Some development of this system is possible during the
next day or two, and it has the potential to become a tropical
depression while it moves slowly northward.  Thereafter, development
is not expected due to the proximity of the disturbance to its
northeast and north.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Shower activity remains limited in association with a broad area of
low pressure located about 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of Baja California.  Gradual development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  After that time, the low is
expected to move over cooler water and into an area of less
favorable upper-level winds which should inhibit development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

An area of low pressure could form early next week several hundred
miles south of the coast of Mexico.  Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for subsequent slow development of the
system while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Cangialosi

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